By John Muellbauer, Professor of Economics, Oxford University. Originally published at VoxEU The failure of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to capture interactions of finance and the real economy has been widely recognised since the Global Crisis. This column argues that the flaws in these models stem from unrealistic micro-foundations for household behaviour and from wrongly assuming that aggregate behaviour mimics a fully informed representative agent. Rather than one-size-fits-all monetary and macroprudential policy, institutional differences between countries imply major differences for monetary policy transmission and policy. The New Keynesian DSGE models that dominated the macroeconomic profession and central bank thinking for the last two decades were based on several principles. The first was formal derivation from micro-foundations, assuming optimising behaviour of consumers and firms with rational or model-consistent expectations of future conditions. For such derivation to result in a tractable model, it was assumed that the behaviour of firms and of consumers corresponded to that of a representative firm and a representative consumer. In turn, this entailed the absence of necessarily heterogeneous credit or liquidity constraints.
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